For decades, the conventional wisdom has been that global instability is good for U.S. mortgage rates. When the world feels unsafe, money flows into U.S. Treasury bonds, which pushes their yields down, which pulls mortgage rates down with them. That was roughly the pattern after 9/11. It was the pattern through the 2008 financial crisis. It’s the pattern a lot of buyers are still expecting. This cycle is running differently. And the reason starts at the gas pump.